Sunda leopard

Pic Credit: Danau Girang Field Centre. 

Sunda leopard (Neofelis diardi) is Borneo's largest predator, but very little is known about the animal. It is well camouflaged and mostly nocturnal. It was only 8 years back that the animal was discovered.

4th edition of Global Reintroduction Perspectives

Re-introduction is acquiring an increasingly important role in conservation. This latest edition of Global Reintroduction Perspectives from IUCN provides 52 fascinating case studies in reintroduction. It is very useful to conservation professionals and the wildlife managers. Read the report HERE

Powerful software Carnegie Landsat Analysis System developed by the Carnegie Institution for Science is now available at no cost

Hi guys,

             Here is a golden opportunity for you to get to know and become proficient in the use of use Landsat Analysis System developed by the Carnegie Institution for Science. The free online course called CLASlite Classroom trains users how to monitor the extent and condition of the world's forests using satellite imagery. It is designed for both expert and entry-level users. 

John Mitchell, vice provost for online learning at Stanford said "CLASlite Classroom represents a new model of collaborative online learning," "It's a perfect example of how the open source online learning platform, OpenEdX, can be used to support scholarship and teaching that has real-world impact, and help the scientific community enlarge the field of engaged citizenry. People everywhere who want to gain knowledge can take this course and also contribute to an important scientific effort."

For more information and to register for the course, visit the CLASlite course webpage.

Wildlife Comeback in Europe study

                                                       

The Eurasian beaver, European bison and White-tailed eagle are among the species that have made remarkable comeback in Europe. The report ‘Wildlife Comeback in Europe’, describes how, why and where 37 mammal and bird species have recovered over the past 50 years. The report gives lessons for the conservation of these and other species.

Professor Jonathan Baillie, Director Zoological Society of London (ZSL), says: “It is essential that we both celebrate and learn from major successes in conservation.  This study helps us understand the interventions and conditions necessary for a broad range of species to experience similar recoveries”

Read the report HERE

A new book for protected area professionals

Social and Economic Benefits of Protected Areas

An Assessment Guide

Edited by Marianne Kettunen, Patrick ten Brink

Routledge – 2013 – 368 pages

340 pages, 58 b/w illustrations, 34 tables

Paperback | Aug 2013 | #207183 | ISBN-13: 9780415632843

Marianne Kettunen is Senior Policy Analyst at the Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) and Guest Researcher at the Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland.

Patrick ten Brink is Senior Fellow and Head of Office at the Institute for European Environmental Policy in Brussels, Belgium. He is also the editor of the book: "The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity in National and International Policy Making", developed within "The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity" (TEEB) project, administered by the United Nations Environment Programme.

Publishers description

Protected areas (PAs) contain biodiversity and ecosystems of high conservation value. In addition, these areas provide a range of benefits, both direct and indirect, to our societies and economies, i.e. so called ecosystem services. These services include, for example, an ecosystem's ability to regulate floods and climate, purify water, secure the pollination of crops, and create opportunities for recreation, culture and tourism.

This book offers a comprehensive introduction to the socio-economic benefits of PAs and PA networks and provides step-by-step practical guidance on identifying, assessing and valuing the various ecosystem services and related benefits provided by PAs. It also aims to improve the communication of PA benefits to different stakeholders and the general public. It is shown that identifying and valuing the socio-economic benefits of PAs can be beneficial for several reasons. Demonstrating socio-economic importance of a protected site can significantly increase political and stakeholder support for the site and resolve conflicts between different interest groups. This can lead to positive changes in policies and decision-making. Insights on PA benefits are also needed to identify a combination of actions and land use practices that best support the sustainable and equitable utilisation of these benefits, while retaining a site’s conservation goals. Finally, demonstrating different benefits can help to discover alternative and sustainable sources for financing the management of PAs.

Message from IUCN - Masters in Conservation Leadership - Applications and scholarship support for October 2014

Masters in Conservation Leadership - Applications and scholarship support for October 2014

This course is a full-time, one year Masters, aimed at graduates of leadership potential with at least three to five years of experience relevant to biodiversity conservation. The unique feature of the course is its delivery by a collaboration between six University of Cambridge departments and nine leading conservation organisations based around Cambridge, and its focus on issues of management and leadership. A key aim of the course is to build the capacity of conservation leaders from tropical countries. As a result, the first two cohorts have attracted post-experience students from around the world.

IUCN have scholarship funding available for the academic year beginning in October 2014. All applications for October entry and scholarships must be received by the 3 December 2013. Further details of the course and scholarships can be found at:
http://www.geog.cam.ac.uk/graduate/mphil/conservation/

IUCN also encourage applicants to seek scholarship support locally, for example the Chevening Scholarship schemes run by the British Council in their home countries.

Novelist Thomas Pynchon shows that science and art can mesh beautifully

Novelist Thomas Pynchon, in his latest book Bleeding Edge (Penguin) underlines the fact that science and art can mesh with mutually beneficial results. There are few novelists who can claim to successfully unite the two cultures, but Pynchon does it with panache. Pynchon turns to science and engineering as sources of imagery and symbolism

The novel centres on Maxine Tarnow, a mother of two boys and self-described "paid up member of Yentas with Attitude,”. Maxine runs a fraud investigation business called "Tail 'Em and Nail 'Em’. She gets deeply involved in the investigation of a computer-security firm called Hashlingerz. The mysterious techno geek CEO of the firm seems to rake in lot of unaccountable money. The  investigation of Maxine leads her deeper and deeper into the Internet underworld, to a Second Life-like "deep Web" world called DeepArcher, then on to a mysterious underground bunker in Montauk, a drug-smuggling boat on the Hudson, and lot of other places  in Manhattan. Meanwhile September 11 is round the corner and Hashlingerz's activities points to some kind of connection to terrorist groups.

The book is beautifully written and is receiving rave reviews.

 Here is a sample of the description of uptown Manhattan in the rain: “What might only be a simple point on the workday cycle . . . becomes a million pedestrian dramas, each one charged with mystery, more intense than high-barometer daylight can ever allow. Everything changes. There’s that clean, rained-on smell. The traffic noise gets liquefied. Reflections from the street into the windows of city buses fill the bus interiors with unreadable 3-D images, as surface unaccountably transforms to volume. Average pushy Manhattan schmucks crowding the sidewalks also pick up some depth, some purpose — they smile, they slow down, even with a cellular phone stuck in their ear they are more apt to be singing to somebody than yakking. Some are observed taking houseplants for walks in the rain. Even the lightest umbrella-to-umbrella contact can be erotic.”

Read an excellent review that appeared in Nature HERE

2013 Champions of the Earth award winners

Here is the list of, UN's flagship environmental award winners

POLICY LEADERSHIP

Ms. Izabella Teixeira, Minister of Environment, Brazil is recognized for her key role in reversing deforestation in the Amazon and her role on high-level UN panels on sustainable development

Janez Potočnik, European Commissioner for the Environment is recognized for his work advocating a shift from the current global model of intensive resource consumption,

ENTREPRENEURIAL VISION

Brian McClendon, co-founder and VP of Google Earth is recognized for providing a powerful tool to monitor the state of the environment, allowing researchers to detect deforestation, classify land cover and estimate forest biomass and carbon and thus demonstrate the scale of problems and illustrate solutions.

Jack Dangermond, Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) is recognized for his commitment to ensuring that international, research, education, and nonprofit organizations working in the fields of conservation and development have access to the best geospatial analytical and visualization technology.

SCIENCE AND INNOVATION

Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD was recognized for his pioneering work on black carbon, which included leading a team that first discovered widespread Atmospheric Brown Clouds (ABCs) and research into how cutting black carbon can significantly mitigate climate change India.

INSPIRATION AND ACTION

Carlo Petrini, Founder of the Slow Food movement is recognized for his visionary work to improve the efficiency and sustainability of the world's agriculture and food supply "one bite at a time".

Martha Isabel Ruiz Corzo, Director of Grupo Ecológico Sierra Gorda is recognized for her work in the Sierra Gorda region of Central Mexico, which demonstrates how a broad range of advocacy, public education and income-generation approaches, can produce support healthy ecosystems and alleviate poverty.

List and details provided by UNEP

The urgent need for transportation biologists in India

In India when a new road or bridge project is planned, there is only perfunctory reference to impact on wildlife. An EIA (Environmental impact analysis), might be done in some cases to meet the needs of the statute books, but there is absolutely no proviso for making the roads and bridges wildlife friendly in its true sense. In several European countries, US, and Canada, in house transportation biologists are an integral part of the whole process of roads and bridges building. They see to it that roads and bridges projects avoid or circumvent sensitive wildlife habitat and help minimize and mitigate environmental impacts to streams, wetlands, and other prime wildlife habitats. Sometime exclusive wildlife bridges (ecoduct) are also built. These wildlife bridges guarantee safe crossing for wildlife in the maze of heavy traffic and cacophony of highways.

In the Netherlands, which has taken a leading role in the field of wildlife friendly roads, there are 600 tunnels to direct wildlife away from highways. Fencing is also resorted to in concert with tunnels, as good option in guiding wildlife to safe crossing structures and prevent crossing in vulnerable areas. In wildlifers’ parlance this practice is called funnelling. Animals’ use of these passages can be optimised by providing plant cover near the entrances. Reducing the plant cover along road curves and increasing it along level stretches has been found to be very effective in bringing down road kills.

I was thrilled to read recently about what Sarah Piecuch,a transportation biologist working with  New York State Department of Transportation (NYSDOT)  did for otters. While involved in a road a project at Melvin Brook in Clyde, New York, early in the project’s development, Sarah noticed an otter (Lontra canadensis) kill, at a project site. Her inquisitiveness led her to a large culvert in the area which was constantly filled with water. This culvert was interrupting the scent trail of the otters. Scent trail is very important in the biology of otter. The lack of an upland area forced the otters to come out of the water and travel over the road embankment to leave a scent trail. This upland travel made them vulnerable to road traffic and many were inadvertently getting killed. Sarah explained the need and ideal parameters for an upland bench to the engineers. The project engineers were delighted to take up the challenge and came up with an ingenious upland bench below the culvert. It was fruition of great team work of biologists and engineers.  Sarah identified the need and the engineers found a perfect solution. This kind of teamwork is what is needed for our roads and bridges projects and not hastily sewn up EIA.

The transportation biologists have to be involved right from the planning stages. It is easy to find solutions at the early stages.  Providing enough culverts for wildlife, to use as underpasses, could come in very handy, as topography has the greatest impact on road kills. Studies by University of Calgary researchers have found that, small animals were far less likely to get killed on sections of roads that were raised than on sections that were level with the surrounding terrain. Engineers and biologists working as a close knit team could come up with perfect solutions.

Even existing structures can be made wildlife friendly with innovative planning. Species like barn owls and cormorants very effectively use the bridges in urban scenarios. Many other birds use the bridges for perching, nesting and roosting. A transportation biologist can advise the engineer, how to take in to account the needs of the birds while repairing or painting the structures. Bridges can provide suitable day and night roosting habitat for bats.

The avenues of transportation biologists and engineers working hand in hand are multifarious. Road ecology has become an important new branch of science and has made great strides abroad. It is high time we did something along these lines in India also. The time to act is ripe, as India is on a fast track of infrastructure developments. India should not lag behind is this sphere. Mitigating interactions between roads and wildlife is going to be very important in the years to come.

New Avatar

Friends,
            After several months break, I am back on this blog. I will be blogging on all related matters of wildlife conservation, instead of concentrating on scientific papers alone. I seek your continued support.

Have a nice day                      

Scientific monitoring of Tigers gets a boost in India

WCS/CWS India under the leadership of Dr Ullas Karanth has been developing new monitoring methodologies for tigers and prey species for over two decades working in tandem with Karnataka Forest Department. Now National Tiger Conservation Authority has decided to incorporate some of their key suggestions as a part of the official protocols.

The key suggestions are

Annual monitoring of tiger source populations will be done using capture-recapture. Individual identification of tigers will be done using camera trap data or faecal DNA analysis. These protocols will work in close association with a national tiger photographic data base repository to be developed and maintained at NTCA.

Minimum sampling area will be 400 sq km at a time. Sampling intensity aimed at will be 1,000 trap nights per 100 sq km.

The annual camera trap survey will be completed in 45-60 days.

If deployment of camera traps in an entire reserve – or parts of it – is not feasible for any reason, faecal DNA samples will be collected within 45-60 day survey period and analysed to arrive at tiger numbers.

Protocols have been also laid down for estimating prey densities using line transect surveys and the use of DISTANCE software.

The icing on the cake is that Dr. Rajesh Gopal (Member Secretary — NTCA) and Sri PR Sinha (Director - WII) is working hand in hand with Dr Ullas Karanth in introducing these refinements. Tahrcountry joins other conservationists in applauding this path breaking team work. 

Comprehensive landscape assessments of protected area networks

Dynamic performance assessment of protected areas

Christopher P. Barbera, Mark A. Cochranea, b, , Carlos Souza Jr.b, , Adalberto Veríssimob

Biological conservation, Volume 149, Issue 1, May 2012, Pages 6–14

For preserving biodiversity and ecosystem services protected area networks have been established worldwide, but are they effective in delivering what has been intended? The authors of this paper say empirical coarse-scale assessments of this question across large regions, or even globally, tend to answer “yes”, while fine-scale studies of individual protected areas often and repeatedly answer “no”.

The researchers conducted a first fine-scale analysis of Brazil’s extensive Amazonian protected area network (1.8 million km2) and quantitatively estimated conservation effectiveness against the backdrop of changing human development pressures in the surrounding landscape. The overall network maintained intact forest cover for 98.6% of protected forest lands. This is in tune with previous coarse-scale studies. A detailed examination of 474 individual protected areas gave a different picture.

The researchers say many protected areas (544,800 km2) experience default protection due to their remoteness only. Some others (396,100 km2) provided highly effective protection in the face of substantial human development pressure.  12% (38) of protected areas failed to protect the 27,300 km2 that they encompass. Another 7% (23) provided only marginal protection for 37,500 km2.

Based on their assessment the authors contend that Comprehensive landscape assessments of protected area networks, with frequent monitoring at scales matching the patterns of human-caused disturbances, are necessary to ensure the conservation effectiveness and long term survival of protected areas in rapidly changing landscapes. The reiterate that the methods presented here are globally adaptable to all forested protected areas.

Estimating the population of Emperor penguins using a single synoptic survey

In this piece of path breaking research, the researchers attempted to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. They examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm

Four new colonies were discovered. The location of three previously suspected sites was confirmed. Total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies was put at 46. The researchers estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs. This is against the last previously published count of 135,000–175,000 pairs). The researchers say based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.

The researchers contend that their work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

Citation: Fretwell PT, LaRue MA, Morin P, Kooyman GL, Wienecke B, et al. (2012) An Emperor Penguin Population Estimate: The First Global, Synoptic Survey of a Species from Space. PLoS ONE 7(4): e33751. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0033751

Opportunity to work in Periyar Tiger Reserve

Young wildlife biologists, here is an opportunity for you to hone your skills in Periyar Tiger Reserve, India’s finest Tiger reserve. Periyar Foundation a Government owned public trust with the legality of the Government organization and flexibility of a good non-governmental organization is looking for field biologists to work under their “Biodiversity conservation and Rural livelihood improvement project” (Kerala forest department– Periyar foundation)

Ecologist

Qualification:  Masters Degree in Environmental / Wildlife Sciences or Forestry (Preference will be given to Ph. D. holders).

Experience:  Minimum 3 years of field experience in the field of ecology preferably in the landscape where Participatory Forest Management is implemented.

Remuneration: Rs 30,000/- per month.

Project period: 5 years.

Tasks to be carried out:

• To undertake analysis, assessment and research on ecology and wildlife biology.

• To distil, document and support to disseminate the best practices in the Project Area.

• To assist in conducting trainings in habitat management practices, monitoring of habitats and wildlife, eco-friendly tourism, to NGOs, local community groups, other stakeholders, policy makers, senior and mid-level forest officers and field staff and other development sector agencies.

• To develop field guides /identification keys on important groups of flora and fauna.

• To conduct impact assessment of habitat interventions, ecotourism etc.

• To contribute as a team in curriculum development and preparation of course material.

Candidates who possess the above qualification may apply with their curriculum vitae to the Executive Secretary, Periyar Foundation, Periyar Tiger Reserve, Thekkady P.O., Kumily, Idukki District, Kerala. Pin – 685536.  The name of the post should be written on the envelope containing application.

Last date for receipt of application is 15th April, 2012

Vacancies exist also for Sociologist / Socio-Ecologist, Regional Planner, Training Officer, Training Assistant, Field Assistant and Accountant

For more details log on to http://www.periyarfoundation.org/

Rare image of a lynx using a highway wildlife-overpass in Banff National Park, Canada

                                                           Photo courtesy: Highwaywilding.org

Here is a very rare image of a Canada lynx using an overpass. The location is the Redearth Creek wildlife overpass on the Trans-Canada Highway in Banff National Park. The exact timing recorded by the camera trap is 8:34 a.m. on March 28, 2012. The overpass is one of the six overpasses in Banff National Park.

Assessing age from colour of coats – A case study involving Thornicroft's giraffes

Here is an interesting piece of research done on giraffes. Prof Fred Bercovitch from the Primate Research Institute and Wildlife Research Centre, Kyoto University working in tandem with  local  naturalist Phil Berry have discovered that Male giraffes' age can be estimated by looking at the colour of their coats. The research was done on Thornicroft's giraffes found in eastern Zambia's South Luangwa Valley. It is one of the nine recognised sub-species of giraffe.

The researchers were able to attach specific ages to coat colour changes. Change in male pelage colouration takes on an average 1.8 years. The males are completely covered with coal-black blotches at an average age of 9.4 years.

Journal Reference 

Darkening coat colour reveals life history and life expectancy of male Thornicroft's giraffes

P. S. M. Berry and F. B. Bercovitch,

Journal of Zoology, Article first published online: 8 MAR 2012 DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2012.00904.x

Vehicular traffic and the use of highway edges by large mammals – Urgent need for holistic EIA

Impact of vehicular traffic on the use of highway edges by large mammals in a South Indian wildlife reserve

Sanjay Gubbi, H. C. Poornesha andM. D. Madhusudan

CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 102, NO. 7, 10 APRIL 2012

Here is a paper that is of great relevance to wildlife managers.

Expansion and improvement of transport and other infrastructure networks is a natural accompaniment to the economic boom that India is experiencing. The authors of this paper say that even though there are legally mandated assessments of the potential ecological impacts of such infrastructure projects prior to implementation, rarely are there any post-implementation assessments of their real ecological impacts.

The researchers present results of a preliminary study examining the impact of vehicular traffic on the usage of road edges by large mammals along a highway passing through Nagarahole Tiger Reserve. Using triggered camera traps they estimated large mammal encounter rates on two consecutive sections of the same highway – one closed to vehicular traffic and the other open to vehicles only during daytime.

The researchers observed lower encounter rates of chital, gaur and elephants at camera traps in the highway segment with higher vehicular traffic density. They add that this is an indication of the fact that these species avoided busy highways. A more sustained monitoring over time is required for a better understanding of how these species respond to vehicular traffic along highways.

State Forest Departments do not take road kills seriously unless the animal killed is large. Hence systematic record-keeping of all mortalities due to road kills would provide the necessary data to assess and mitigate impacts of vehicular traffic on wildlife. There is an urgent need for scientifically designed wildlife crossing structures while planning highways through wildlife reserves.

 Based on their findings, the researchers emphasize the importance of continued ecological impact assessments of development projects to identify and mitigate unforeseen impacts. They make a fervent plea for an approach that integrates development planning with conservation concerns, especially where development projects coincide with ecologically critical areas.

The prevailing system of rapid EIAs by untrained people, often hired by project proponents themselves should be dispensed with. What is needed is rigorous and peer-scrutinized assessments carried out by trained wildlife biologists.  The country needs to invest in a more holistic process of development planning that includes – rather than ignores – the conservation of its priceless natural heritage.

I thank Annapoorna Daithota of ncf-india for sending me a copy of the paper

Book Recommendation

The other day Girish from Karnataka, one of the regular readers of this blog, wanted a recommendation of a book on Population Genetics suited to the needs of graduate students and wildlife managers. Here is my recommendation “Population Genetics for Animal Conservation”. The book was published in 2009.   This book integrates 'the analytical methods approach' with the 'real problems approach' in conservation genetics. If you have better recommendation please pass it on. Girish would be delighted to get your recommendations.

Population Genetics for Animal Conservation

Giorgio Bertorelle, Università degli Studi di Ferrara, Michael W. Bruford, Heidi C. Hauffe, Edmund Mach Foundation, Annapaolo Rizzoli and Cristiano Vernesi

Cambridge University Press

ISBN: 9780521685375

The Diversity of Sacred Lands in Europe – IUCN WCPA news release

‘The Diversity of Sacred Lands in Europe’, provides a unique insight into Europe’s often forgotten sacred natural sites. It looks into their history, importance and the threats they currently face. The book is a must-read for managers of European protected areas and landscapes and those interested in the religious and cultural aspects of European natural sites. Published by IUCN and Metsähallitus Natural Heritage Services of Finland, the book is part of a series issued by The Delos Initiative of IUCN’s World Commission on Protected Areas.

Authors of the book place special attention to the sacred places of the Sámi indigenous people living in northern Finland, Sweden, Norway and North-West Russia. They also describe sacred natural sites in Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, North-West Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.

“Sacred natural sites hold traditional and spiritual values that are often hidden from the modern world and that are deeply linked to ecosystem and landscape management”, says Gonzalo Oviedo, IUCN's senior adviser for social policy. “These values are extremely important for Europe’s cultural, spiritual and natural heritage. They include some unique knowledge of traditional medicine, livestock breeding, wildlife and agricultural cycles. Greater recognition of this knowledge and better management of these areas can help us sustainably conserve our natural heritage, especially in the time of increasing climate change.”

“The importance of sacred natural sites is rarely recognized these days and their values are often ignored in the face of expanding urbanisation and insensitive development initiatives”, says Josep Maria Mallarach, one of the editors of the book and coordinator of The Delos Initiative. “Tourism also puts pressure on these unique places, causing physical and spiritual degradation.”

“Integrated management of the sites and improved public awareness can help address these challenges”, says Thymio Papayannis, co-editor of the book and joint coordinator of The Delos Initiative. “Closer collaboration between the custodians of sacred natural sites and conservationists is crucial if we want to safeguard Europe’s unique natural, cultural and spiritual values of such sites.”

Taking into account uncertainties should be a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations

Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte

Alejandro Ruete,Wei Yang,Lars Bärring,Nils Chr. Stenseth andTord Snäll

Published online before print March 28, 2012, doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.0428Proc. R. Soc. B

Assessment of future ecosystem risks assumes great significance against the backdrop of climate change. This assessment should take in to account relevant uncertainty sources. Studying joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties becomes imperative.

Here the researchers investigated the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. They also compared the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections.

According to the researchers the whole chain global climate model (GCM)—regional climate model—population dynamics model is addressed. The researchers say uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The researchers affirm that most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative. Even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved.

The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. The researchers say uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.